NOAA says this El Niño is still getting stronger and could be the strongest since they started keeping records in 1950. Here is what that does and doesn't mean for Inland Empire roofs, and why October and November are the months to replace a roof that is already on borrowed time.
On October 8, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said this El Niño is still getting stronger, and that a strong to very strong El Niño is likely to stick around through January to March 2027. They put the odds that it beats every El Niño on record, going back to 1950, at 70 percent for November through January. The National Weather Service has said strong El Niños tend to tilt Southern California toward a wetter than normal winter, and the California Geological Survey says the same thing about the southern third of the state.
Even NOAA keeps it honest. In their words, with an event this big the chances of El Niño type impacts are "larger, though not guaranteed."
I'm a roofer, not a meteorologist, so I'm not going to tell you this winter will flood. Nobody can. The strong El Niños of 1982 and 1997 soaked the whole state, and downtown Los Angeles got 31 inches of rain in the 1997-98 season. Then the strong El Niño of 2015-16 came along and Southern California came in below normal. Downtown LA got 9.65 inches that season, about two thirds of a normal year.
So I won't sell you a storm. Here is what I will tell you, because I see it every year: the rain doesn't break a roof. It finds the roof that was already broken. And this year the odds of a lot of rain finding it just went up. We already got a preview in late September, when thunderstorms pushed mud and debris across roads up by Oak Glen.
A tired roof can sometimes limp through one storm. A wet El Niño winter is different, because the storms come back to back. In my experience, water that gets in during the first storm is still sitting in the deck and the insulation when the next one shows up, and a small leak turns into a ceiling, a wall and a mold problem. Tarps help for a night. They are not a winter plan.
This is the part people don't think about until December. Replacing a roof means opening it up: the old shingles come off, or the tile comes off and gets stacked, and the deck is bare until the new underlayment goes down. Roofing in the rain is how you make new problems. When storms are lined up every few days, there is no good window to open a roof, and everybody who waited is calling at the same time.
The forecast gives us a window. The latest outlook calls for a fairly normal November, with the wetter odds stacking up from December on. That makes October and November the months to get it done.
If your roof has life left, a pre-season check and a few small fixes are the right call. I wrote about that in The First Rain Finds Everything. But a lot of the roofs I get on in the fall are not repair roofs anymore. These are the signs I look for:
If you are not sure which roof you have, that is exactly what the estimate is for. Here is how I decide between a repair and a replacement.
It depends on the roof you have.
Straight answer: we still have openings on the October and November calendar for replacements and repairs. Once the first big storm hits, every roofer's phone lights up at once, mine included. If you have been putting off a roof you already know is done, this is the time to get it on the schedule. If budget is what's holding you back, ask us about financing.
A lot of policies cover wind, but most homeowners policies exclude wear and tear, and the policy and your insurance company decide what is covered after the deductible. A roof that was already worn out before the storm usually lands back on the homeowner. That is one more reason to deal with a tired roof before the rain, not after. More in Storm Damage: Document First, Call Second.
El Niño is odds. A worn out roof is a sure thing.
Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, October 8, 2026; California Geological Survey, El Niño and California Precipitation; Los Angeles Almanac, downtown Los Angeles seasonal rainfall (National Weather Service data); ABC7, October 6, 2026 (National Weather Service); ABC7, October 8, 2026 (monthly outlook).
Free in-home estimate, in writing, and we still have room on the October and November calendar. We do asphalt shingle roofs, tile replacement with new tile, tile lift and relay, and flat roofs across the Inland Empire.
(909) 819-8394